Well, an excellent day on the backing front with over 5 1/2 points profit on the day but not so good on the lay side of things. The trend lays recorded their first win today (hence loss for us), but at only 2/1 the damage on the day was limited to just over a point. Seeing how these lays have been doing the last few days, I'm not too worried about today's loss and still remain extremely happy with the way the system is going.
The place-lays, on the other hand are definitely not going to plan and this is very annoying as I had high hopes for this system. I know where I have gone wrong and I plan to rectify that as from tomorrow. I will keep all results as is and give the system until next weekend to prove its worth.
Until tomorrow then....
Friday, August 17, 2007
Thoughts for today.....
Today's Results ( Fri 17 Aug 2007)
Today's Results
(red=loss, blue=win)
System 1
No selection
System 2
No selection
System 3
18:25 Newmarket CENTENNIAL 1st@4/6
System 4
No selection
System 5
17:05 Newcastle JOHN KEATS 1st@5/2
19:30 Newmarket BEFORE YOU GO 1st@7/2
System 6
15:40 Doncaster LOCH VERDI 4th@13/2
20-25 Day System
No selection
4,5,6 System
No selection
Place-laying System
14:00 Doncaster (if 14 run)- QUOTATION 2nd@6/1 (2.70 place, est.)
16:00 Newcastle- No bet, joint 3rd favs
16:55 Newbury (if 14-15 run)- No bet, joint 3rd favs
17:55 Newmarket (if 14-15 run)- BARNEY MCGREW 1st@6/1 (2.77 place,est.)
19:45 Catterick- No bet, joint 3rd favs
Trend Lays
17:35 Catterick RUDRY WORLD Withdrawn
18:05 Catterick NATURAL RHYTHM 1st@2/1
18:40 Catterick CHOISETTE 4th@3/1
Trend Lays (Fri 17 Aug 2007)
Trend Lays
17:35 Catterick RUDRY WORLD
18:05 Catterick NATURAL RHYTHM
18:40 Catterick CHOISETTE
Today's Selection (Fri 17 Aug 2007)
Today's Selections
System 1
No selection
System 2
No selection
System 3
18:25 Newmarket CENTENNIAL (13/8)
System 4
No selection
System 5
17:05 Newcastle JOHN KEATS (8/1)
19:30 Newmarket BEFORE YOU GO (7/2)
System 6
15:40 Doncaster LOCH VERDI (9/1)
20-25 Day System
No selection
4,5,6 System
No selection
Place-laying System
14:00 Doncaster (if 14 run)
16:00 Newcastle
16:55 Newbury (if 14-15 run)
17:55 Newmarket (if 14-15 run)
19:45 Catterick
Trend Lays
Will update later
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Today's Selections (Thur 16 Aug 2007)
Today's Selections
System 1
18:20 Chepstow SOSUEME NOW (9/2)
19:00 Folkestone BEAUTIFUL MADNESS (7/4)
System 2
No selection
System 3
14:50 Sandown JEDEDIAH (13/8)
17:50 Chepstow NON SUCRE (9/4)
System 4
No selection
System 5
18:00 Folkestone PRINCE OF MEDINA (10/1)
System 6
No selection
20-25 Day System
No selection
4,5,6 System
17:50 Chepstow NON SUCRE (9/4)
18:20 Chepstow SOSUEME NOW (9/2)
18:50 Chepstow GLENCAL (2/1)
19:00 Folkestone BEAUTIFUL MADNESS (7/4)
Place-laying System
15:25 Sandown
16:35 Sandown (only if 6 run)
16:50 Salisbury
17:20 Salisbury (only if 14 run)
18:00 Folkestone
20:20 Chepstow (not less than 16 to run)
Trend Lays
14:00 Salisbury BLUES MINOR
15:40 Salisbury HAZLENUT
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Thoughts for today...
Well a mixed bag of results today. It had the potential to be a terrible day, so under the circumstances I'm pretty happy with the way it turned out. Systems 1-6 gave a profit of 1.44 points and those of you who follow my thread on Punters Lounge will know these results are always collated together. I'm a bit disappointed with the 4,5,6 system today with two unplaced and the one winner at a very skinny 4/9.
The two lay systems are going OK. After a dodgy start the place-lays have picked up nicely and are now showing a profit and the trend lays are sitting pretty at 4/4 short priced lays turned over. Still early days yet but some promise there.
Tony
Today's Results (Wed 15 Aug 2007)
Today's Selections
(Red= losing bet, Blue=winning bet)
System 1
15:20 Yarmouth XALTED Unp@7/2
18:20 Hamilton NINE STORIES 3rd@7/2
System 2
18:55 Hamilton PRINCE SAMOS Unp@3/1
System 3
14:10 Beverley BONJOUR ALLURE 1st@5/2
16:40 Beverley MUQADAM 2nd@4/7
17:30 Sandown ROYAL CONFIDENCE 1st@4/9
System 4
No selection
System 5
15:50 Yarmouth KAVERI Unp@5/2
20:30 Hamilton RUDRY WORLD 1st@7/2
System 6
No selection
20-25 Day System
15:50 Yarmouth KAVERI Unp@5/2
4,5,6 System
15:20 Yarmouth XALTED Unp@7/2
17:30 Sandown ROYAL CONFIDENCE 1st@4/9
18:20 Hamilton NINE STORIES 3rd@7/2
Place-laying System
15:10 Beverley- WELCOME APPROACH 3rd@11/2 (2.53 est.)
16:40 Beverley (only if 6 run)- FINAL OVERTURE Unp@9/1
17:00 Salisbury (only if 14 run)- No bet, NR's
17:30 Sandown- DOME ROCK Unp@7/1
18:00 Sandown (only if 14 run)- No bet, NR's
19:05 Sandown (only if 8 run)- No bet, NR's
19:40 Sandown- TIME OVER Unp@6/1
Trend Lays
16:00 Salisbury BARSHIBA Unp@11/8
Today's Selections ( Wed 15 August 2007 )
Today's Selections
System 1
15:20 Yarmouth XALTED (6/1)
18:20 Hamilton NINE STORIES (6/1)
System 2
18:55 Hamilton PRINCE SAMOS (11/4)
System 3
14:10 Beverley BONJOUR ALLURE (3/1)
16:40 Beverley MUQADAM (7/4)
17:30 Sandown ROYAL CONFIDENCE (4/6)
System 4
No selection
System 5
15:50 Yarmouth KAVERI (5/2)
20:30 Hamilton RUDRY WORLD (4/1)
System 6
No selection
20-25 Day System
15:50 Yarmouth KAVERI (5/2)
4,5,6 System
15:20 Yarmouth XALTED (6/1)
17:30 Sandown ROYAL CONFIDENCE (4/6)
18:20 Hamilton NINE STORIES (6/1)
Place-laying System
15:10 Beverley
16:40 Beverley (only if 6 run)
17:00 Salisbury (only if 14 run)
17:30 Sandown
18:00 Sandown (only if 14 run)
19:05 Sandown (only if 8 run)
19:40 Sandown
Loads of selections today. Let's hope they don't come and bite us on the arse by the end of the day!
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Trend Lays (Tues 14 Aug 2007)
No trend lays at the moment. There could be some for the evening cards, if so I'll post them up later.
Today's Selections (Tues 14 Aug 2007)
Today's Selections
System 1
16:30 Brighton PERFECT TREASURE (2/1)
System 2
16:00 Brighton PRINCE DES NEIGES (11/8)
System 3
No selection
System 4
No selection
System 5
No selection
System 6
15:00 Brighton PERUVIAN STYLE (9/2)
19:15 Nottingham BRIXWORTH SCRIBE (4/1)
20-25 Day System
No selection
4,5,6 System
14:30 Brighton COMMANDMENT (2/5)
16:30 Brighton PERFECT TREASURE (2/1)
Place-laying System
14:15 Newton Abbot
15:00 Brighton
15:30 Brighton
16:30 Brighton
17:15 Newton Abbot
18:30 Musselburgh
18:45 Nottingham
19:00 Musselburgh (only if 14 run)
20:00 Musselburgh
20:30 Musselburgh
The place-laying system has thrown up a good few selections to get our teeth into but the 4,5,6 system is playing silly buggers me thinks by giving us a 2/5 shot in a 4 runner race! It counts towards the final results, obviously, but I think I'll swerve that particular one with my hard earned.
Anyway, here's hoping for another profitable day.
Monday, August 13, 2007
Today's Results (Mon 13 Aug)
Today's Selections
System 1
No selections
System 2
No selection
System 3
No selection
System 4
No selection
System 5
No selection
System 6
14:30 Wolves GROSS PROPHET 1st@4/1
18:15 Windsor SUPERDUPER Unp@10/3
20-25 Day System
No selection
4,5,6 System
No selection
Place-laying System
15:45 Stratford PRINCESS OF SPURS Unp@7/1
16:30 Wolves No bet- joint 3rd favs
20:15 Windsor No bet- joint 3rd favs
Trend Lays
5:30 Wolves COBO BAY No bet @ 11/1
17:45 Windsor PIXIES BLUE No bet @ 6/1
18:15 Windsor PEAS IN THE POD No bet @ 12/1
18:25 Thirsk GRACEFUL DECENT 2nd @ 7/4
19:15 Windsor BEAVER PATROL 2nd @ 7/4
Trend Lays Results (Mon 13 Aug)
15:30 Wolves COBO BAY No bet @ 11/1
17:45 Windsor PIXIES BLUE No bet @ 6/1
18:15 Windsor PEAS IN THE POD No bet @ 12/1
18:25 Thirsk GRACEFUL DECENT 2nd @ 7/4
19:15 Windsor BEAVER PATROL 2nd @ 7/4
I was starting to worry that we wouldn't get to have a bet today after the first three races all went over the 9/2 cut off point. Managed to get the last two races though and they duly obliged at short prices.
Trend Lays (Mon 13 Aug)
Today's trend lays are the following (don't forget no bet if over 6.00 on the exchanges- roughly 9/2 SP):
15:30 Wolves COBO BAY
17:45 Windsor PIXIES BLUE
18:15 Windsor PEAS IN THE POD
18:25 Thirsk GRACEFUL DECENT
19:15 Windsor BEAVER PATROL
Today's Selections (Mon 13 Aug)
Today's Selections
System 1
No selections
System 2
No selection
System 3
No selection
System 4
No selection
System 5
No selection
System 6
14:30 Wolves GROSS PROPHET (7/1)
18:15 Windsor SUPERDUPER (3/1)
20-25 Day System
No selection
4,5,6 System
No selection
Place-laying System
15:45 Stratford
16:30 Wolves
20:15 Windsor (only if there are 12-13 runners)
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Today's Results (Sun 12 Aug)
System 1
No selections
System 2
No selection
System 3
14:10 Redcar CANDLE SAHARA Unp@6/5
15:30 Wolves SALSA VERDI 1st@6/4
System 4
No selection
System 5
14:20 Leicester FINSBURY 1st@3/1
14:40 Redcar GREEK SECRET Unp@7/1
15:50 Leicester CAN CAN STAR Unp@8/1
System 6
No selection
20-25 Day System
No selection
4,5,6 System
14:20 Leicester FINSBURY 1st@3/1
Trends Lays
14:20 Leicester STRIKE FORCE Unp@3/1 (Bet wins)
Place-Lay System
15:10 Redcar MOMENT OF CLARITY Unp@11/2 (Bet wins- 2.51 odds)
16:10 Redcar JENNY SOBA 1st@5/1 (Bet loses- 2.40 odds)
16:20 Leicester MISS LUCIFER 2nd@13/2 (Bet loses- 2.82 odds)
16:50 Leicester No Bet due to non-runner rule
Another Little Something...
Something else I have tucked up my sleeve is a lay system which has nothing to do with any type of Massey ratings or reports. It's loosely trends based and as I love trends as well as stats I may as well start posting the selections here and will call them Trend Lays. Now, there may not be selections every day and I will not be divulging how I go about choosing the selections (yet!). Selections listed will NOT be a lay if the price drifts over 6.00 on the exchanges. For the sake of fairness, results will be taken at SP and converted to estimated betfair prices using Massey's odds analyser
Massey tells us that true decimal odds of 6.00 on the exchanges equates to 9/2. Obviously this is an average taken over 1000's of races analysed so for the sake of these selections, we will take maximum SP at 9/2.
So today's Trend Lays:
14:20 Leicester STRIKE FORCE
Place-laying System (Sun 12 Aug)
Right, lets see if we can get any of this lot racing today!
15:10 Redcar
16:10 Redcar
16:20 Leicester (only if it stays a 6 runner race)
16:50 Leicester
Don't forget it's CLEAR 3rd favourites to place-lay only. If an 8 or more runner race falls to 7 runners or less due to non-runners, withdrawals etc, then no bet as betfair still pays out on the three places.
Today's Selections (Sun 12 Aug)
Today's Selections
System 1
No selections
System 2
No selection
System 3
14:10 Redcar CANDLE SAHARA (5/4)
15:30 Wolves SALSA VERDI (7/4)
System 4
No selection
System 5
14:20 Leicester FINSBURY (3/1)
14:40 Redcar GREEK SECRET (15/2)
15:50 Leicester CAN CAN STAR (6/1)
System 6
No selection
20-25 Day System
No selection
4,5,6 System
14:20 Leicester FINSBURY (3/1)
A couple more winners today would be just what the doctor ordered me thinks!
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Place-laying System
Well, that was a great start to this trial- not one selection qualified.
Ascot 15:30----------No bet. Reason: 2 jt 3rd favs
Newmarket 17:05----No bet. Reason: 4 Nr's reduced field to 6
Ayr 18:20-----------No bet. Reason: 2 Nr's reduced field to 7
Ayr 20:50-----------No bet: Reason: 2 jt 3rd favs
If a race has more than 8 runners betfair pays three places (4 places for handicaps over 16 runners). If a field is reduced to 7 runners or less due to non runners, withdrawals etc, betfair still pays out on the three places, so obviously in situations like this a bet is definitely a no-no.
This is one system that really excites me as I hold out high expectations for it. Time will obviously tell...
System Updates (Sat 11 Aug)
System 1
Today: 2 Bet= -2.00pt
Total: 9 Bet= 2 Win/ 3 Placed/ 4 Unp
Total Profit: -2.88pts
SR: +22.22%
ROI: -32.00%
System 2
Today: No selection
Total: 12 Bets= 6 Wins/ 6 Unp
Total Profit: +4.21pts
SR: +50.00%
ROI: +35.08%
System 3
Today: No selection
Total: 20 Bets= 8 Win/ 6 Placed/ 6 Unp
Total Profit: -0.74pts
SR: +40.00%
ROI: -3.70%
System 4
Today: No selection
Total: 3 Bet= 1 Win/ 2 Placed
Total Profit: -1.09pts
SR: +33.33%
ROI: -36.33%
System 5
Today: 2 Bets= -2.00pts
Total: 44 Bets= 8 Win/ 10 Placed/ 26 Unp
Total Profit: -7.75pts
SR: +18.18%
ROI: -17.61%
System 6
Today: 2 Bet= +5.00pts
Total: 37 Bets= 15 Wins/ 6 Placed/ 16 Unp
Total Profit: +39.88pts
SR: +40.54%
ROI: +107.78%
TODAY'S OVERALL POINTS TOTAL (SYS 1-6): +1.00pt
OVERALL TO DATE (Combined Results-sys 1-6)
Total: 125 Bets= 40 Wins/ 67 Placed (incl. winners)/ 58 Unp
Total Profit: +31.63pts
SR: +32.00%
(Place SR: +53.60%)
ROI: +25.30%
20-25 Day System
Today: No selection
Total: 3 Bet= 2 Win/ 0 Placed/ 1 Unp
Total Profit: +3.50 pts
SR: +66.67%
ROI: +116.67%
Today: 1 Bet= -1.00pt
Total: 2 Bet= 0 Wins/ 0 Placed/ 2 Unp
Total Profit: -2.00pt
SR: +0.00%
ROI: -100.00%
Today's Results (Sat 11 Aug)
Today's Selections
System 1
14:30 Redcar LADY RANGALI Unp@4/1
17:35 Newmarket SMART ASS 2nd@13/8
System 2
No selection
System 3
No selection
System 4
No selection
System 5
13:45 Ascot DARK MISSILE 2nd@9/2
17:35 Newmarket SMART ASS 2nd@13/8
System 6
14:20 Ascot GENKI 1st@6/4
17:50 Ayr ARCTIC CAPE 1st@7/2
20-25 Day System
No selection
4,5,6 System
13:55 Redcar DAWN LIGHT Unp@7/2
A severe case of seconditus prevented a cracking day. Better than yesterday, anyhow, with system 6 back to its healthy self!!
Danny & Tony's Lays- Sat 11 August (Evening)
Lingfield
19:10 THE FIFTH MEMBER / OUR RUBY
19:40 FRISKY TALK
20:10 MAKE MY DREAM / ENDLESS SUMMER
Ayr
19:20 SOTO
20:20 GALA SUNDAY / PLAYTHEAUDIENCE
New Idea- Place-laying
Last year I toyed with a place-laying system with mixed results. They were mixed results profit wise, I think, due to the reason I wasn't betting them properly. By this I mean I came up with the stupid idea of martingaling my bets up to the first three races. If race one came in for me, well, hunky dory, that was me for the day. Obviously if I had to go to races two and (especially) three, liabilities started to rise dramatically as I wanted to cover my losses but also make my x amount for the day. I got caught out a couple of times and it hurt!
Now I've come to realise that if I had played level stakes or percentage betting I probably would have been well in. So what I've decided to do is give it another bash but with a twist.
Using the Massey favourite (and NOT the ratings) reports, I'm going to place-lay 3rd favourites that satisfy certain criteria that come out in the reports. Obviously this is just a trial at the moment and as I may not be around all the time to monitor the betfair prices I will use Masseys Odds Analyser to get my odds for the selections. Obviously if I'm around I will use the real price but will stipulate this in the results.
Right, today has thrown up these races, so the CLEAR 3rd favourite will be place-layed. If its not clear 3rd rated then no bet:
Ascot 15:30
Newmarket 17:05
Ayr 18:20
Ayr 20:50
Danny & Tony's Lay System- Saturday 11 August
Today's possible lays (don't forget prices have to be 10.00 or under on the exchanges, approx. 8/1 SP).
Haydock
2.00 TEXAS GOLD
4.50 ALLEVIATE
Ascot
2.20 LIPOCCO
These are the selections so far. If there are any for the evening cards I will update accordingly later.
Today's Selections- Saturday 11 August 2007
Today's Selections
System 1
14:30 Redcar LADY RANGALI (7/2)
17:35 Newmarket SMART ASS (2/1)
System 2
No selection
System 3
No selection
System 4
No selection
System 5
13:45 Ascot DARK MISSILE (7/2)
17:35 Newmarket SMART ASS (2/1)
System 6
14:20 Ascot GENKI (3/1)
17:50 Ayr ARCTIC CAPE (3/1)
20-25 Day System
No selection
4,5,6 System
13:55 Redcar DAWN LIGHT (9/2)
I think after yesterdays whitewash we'd better keep our finger's crossed today!
Friday, August 10, 2007
Danny & Tony's Laying System Results- Friday 10 August 2007
Lingfield
14.15
PAYMASTER GENERAL ---Unp@7/1
16.45
SHUSTRAYA ---Unp@ 13/2
TEEN AGER ---Over 8/1- No Bet
GOLDEN DESERT ---1st@6/1 (8.4 on betfair)
17.15
SCARLET OAK ---Over 8/1- No Bet
Sedgefield
15.30
RED SUN ---Non-runner
GAPPERSONNELDOTCOM ---Over 8/1- No Bet
MISTER FIZZBOMB ---2nd@8/1
16.30
CUMBRIAN KNIGHT ---Over 8/1- No Bet
17.30
IZZYKEEN ---Non-runner
GREENFORT BRAVE ---Over 8/1- No Bet
System Updates- Friday 10 August 2007
System 1
Today: 1 Bet= -1.00pt
Total: 7 Bet= 2 Win/ 2 Placed/ 3 Unp
Total Profit: -0.88pts
SR: +28.57%
ROI: -12.57%
System 2
Today: No selection
Total: 12 Bets= 6 Wins/ 6 Unp
Total Profit: +4.21pts
SR: +50.00%
ROI: +35.08%
System 3
Today: No selection
Total: 20 Bets= 8 Win/ 6 Placed/ 6 Unp
Total Profit: -0.74pts
SR: +40.00%
ROI: -3.70%
System 4
Today: No selection
Total: 3 Bet= 1 Win/ 2 Placed
Total Profit: -1.09pts
SR: +33.33%
ROI: -36.33%
System 5
Today: 3 Bets= -3.00pts
Total: 42 Bets= 8 Win/ 8 Placed/ 26 Unp
Total Profit: -5.75pts
SR: +19.05%
ROI: -13.69%
System 6
Today: 1 Bet= -1.00pt
Total: 35 Bets= 13 Wins/ 6 Placed/ 16 Unp
Total Profit: +34.88pts
SR: +37.14%
ROI: +99.66%
TODAY'S OVERALL POINTS TOTAL (SYS 1-6): -5.00pts
OVERALL TO DATE (Combined Results-sys 1-6)
Total: 119 Bets= 38 Wins/ 62 Placed (incl. winners)/ 57 Unp
Total Profit: +30.63pts
SR: +31.93%
(Place SR: +52.10%)
ROI: +25.74%
20-25 Day System
Today: 1 Bet= -1.00 pts
Total: 3 Bet= 2 Win/ 0 Placed/ 1 Unp
Total Profit: +3.50 pts
SR: +66.67%
ROI: +116.67%
Today: 1 Bet= -1.00pt
Total: 1 Bet= 0 Wins/ 0 Placed/ 1 Unp
Total Profit: -1.00pt
SR: +0.00%
ROI: -100.00%
What an absolutely shocking day! I think the less said about it the better....
System Results- Friday 10 August 2007
System 1
16:15 Lingfield TENJACK QUEEN---Unp @ 2/5
System 2
No selection
System 3
No selection
System 4
No selection
System 5
17:15 Lingfield DASHEENA---Unp @ 6/1
19:15 Newmarket VEILED APPLAUSE---2nd @ 4/1
19:45 Newmarket SNOQUALMIE BOY---2nd @ Evns
System 6
16:15 Lingfield TENJACK QUEEN---Unp @ 2/5
20-25 System
16:45 Lingfield PUSEY STREET LADY---Unp @ 10/1
4,5,6 System
16:15 Lingfield TENJACK QUEEN---Unp @ 2/5
Football Tipping on Punter's Lounge
The PL organise a football tipping competition for members every season and I've been entered for the first time in the Conference A division. I'm going to post up my selections here every week as I've decided that I'm going to have a real flutter on them. Will be interesting to see the results over the course of the season!!
Right, my first selections for tomorrow are:
Aston Villa - Liverpool 2.00
Morecombe - Barnet 2.20
Raith - Berwick 1.53
(my selections in green)
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