System 1
No selections
System 2
No selection
System 3
14:10 Redcar CANDLE SAHARA Unp@6/5
15:30 Wolves SALSA VERDI 1st@6/4
System 4
No selection
System 5
14:20 Leicester FINSBURY 1st@3/1
14:40 Redcar GREEK SECRET Unp@7/1
15:50 Leicester CAN CAN STAR Unp@8/1
System 6
No selection
20-25 Day System
No selection
4,5,6 System
14:20 Leicester FINSBURY 1st@3/1
Trends Lays
14:20 Leicester STRIKE FORCE Unp@3/1 (Bet wins)
Place-Lay System
15:10 Redcar MOMENT OF CLARITY Unp@11/2 (Bet wins- 2.51 odds)
16:10 Redcar JENNY SOBA 1st@5/1 (Bet loses- 2.40 odds)
16:20 Leicester MISS LUCIFER 2nd@13/2 (Bet loses- 2.82 odds)
16:50 Leicester No Bet due to non-runner rule
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Today's Results (Sun 12 Aug)
Another Little Something...
Something else I have tucked up my sleeve is a lay system which has nothing to do with any type of Massey ratings or reports. It's loosely trends based and as I love trends as well as stats I may as well start posting the selections here and will call them Trend Lays. Now, there may not be selections every day and I will not be divulging how I go about choosing the selections (yet!). Selections listed will NOT be a lay if the price drifts over 6.00 on the exchanges. For the sake of fairness, results will be taken at SP and converted to estimated betfair prices using Massey's odds analyser
Massey tells us that true decimal odds of 6.00 on the exchanges equates to 9/2. Obviously this is an average taken over 1000's of races analysed so for the sake of these selections, we will take maximum SP at 9/2.
So today's Trend Lays:
14:20 Leicester STRIKE FORCE
Place-laying System (Sun 12 Aug)
Right, lets see if we can get any of this lot racing today!
15:10 Redcar
16:10 Redcar
16:20 Leicester (only if it stays a 6 runner race)
16:50 Leicester
Don't forget it's CLEAR 3rd favourites to place-lay only. If an 8 or more runner race falls to 7 runners or less due to non-runners, withdrawals etc, then no bet as betfair still pays out on the three places.
Today's Selections (Sun 12 Aug)
Today's Selections
System 1
No selections
System 2
No selection
System 3
14:10 Redcar CANDLE SAHARA (5/4)
15:30 Wolves SALSA VERDI (7/4)
System 4
No selection
System 5
14:20 Leicester FINSBURY (3/1)
14:40 Redcar GREEK SECRET (15/2)
15:50 Leicester CAN CAN STAR (6/1)
System 6
No selection
20-25 Day System
No selection
4,5,6 System
14:20 Leicester FINSBURY (3/1)
A couple more winners today would be just what the doctor ordered me thinks!
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Place-laying System
Well, that was a great start to this trial- not one selection qualified.
Ascot 15:30----------No bet. Reason: 2 jt 3rd favs
Newmarket 17:05----No bet. Reason: 4 Nr's reduced field to 6
Ayr 18:20-----------No bet. Reason: 2 Nr's reduced field to 7
Ayr 20:50-----------No bet: Reason: 2 jt 3rd favs
If a race has more than 8 runners betfair pays three places (4 places for handicaps over 16 runners). If a field is reduced to 7 runners or less due to non runners, withdrawals etc, betfair still pays out on the three places, so obviously in situations like this a bet is definitely a no-no.
This is one system that really excites me as I hold out high expectations for it. Time will obviously tell...
System Updates (Sat 11 Aug)
System 1
Today: 2 Bet= -2.00pt
Total: 9 Bet= 2 Win/ 3 Placed/ 4 Unp
Total Profit: -2.88pts
SR: +22.22%
ROI: -32.00%
System 2
Today: No selection
Total: 12 Bets= 6 Wins/ 6 Unp
Total Profit: +4.21pts
SR: +50.00%
ROI: +35.08%
System 3
Today: No selection
Total: 20 Bets= 8 Win/ 6 Placed/ 6 Unp
Total Profit: -0.74pts
SR: +40.00%
ROI: -3.70%
System 4
Today: No selection
Total: 3 Bet= 1 Win/ 2 Placed
Total Profit: -1.09pts
SR: +33.33%
ROI: -36.33%
System 5
Today: 2 Bets= -2.00pts
Total: 44 Bets= 8 Win/ 10 Placed/ 26 Unp
Total Profit: -7.75pts
SR: +18.18%
ROI: -17.61%
System 6
Today: 2 Bet= +5.00pts
Total: 37 Bets= 15 Wins/ 6 Placed/ 16 Unp
Total Profit: +39.88pts
SR: +40.54%
ROI: +107.78%
TODAY'S OVERALL POINTS TOTAL (SYS 1-6): +1.00pt
OVERALL TO DATE (Combined Results-sys 1-6)
Total: 125 Bets= 40 Wins/ 67 Placed (incl. winners)/ 58 Unp
Total Profit: +31.63pts
SR: +32.00%
(Place SR: +53.60%)
ROI: +25.30%
20-25 Day System
Today: No selection
Total: 3 Bet= 2 Win/ 0 Placed/ 1 Unp
Total Profit: +3.50 pts
SR: +66.67%
ROI: +116.67%
Today: 1 Bet= -1.00pt
Total: 2 Bet= 0 Wins/ 0 Placed/ 2 Unp
Total Profit: -2.00pt
SR: +0.00%
ROI: -100.00%
Today's Results (Sat 11 Aug)
Today's Selections
System 1
14:30 Redcar LADY RANGALI Unp@4/1
17:35 Newmarket SMART ASS 2nd@13/8
System 2
No selection
System 3
No selection
System 4
No selection
System 5
13:45 Ascot DARK MISSILE 2nd@9/2
17:35 Newmarket SMART ASS 2nd@13/8
System 6
14:20 Ascot GENKI 1st@6/4
17:50 Ayr ARCTIC CAPE 1st@7/2
20-25 Day System
No selection
4,5,6 System
13:55 Redcar DAWN LIGHT Unp@7/2
A severe case of seconditus prevented a cracking day. Better than yesterday, anyhow, with system 6 back to its healthy self!!
Danny & Tony's Lays- Sat 11 August (Evening)
Lingfield
19:10 THE FIFTH MEMBER / OUR RUBY
19:40 FRISKY TALK
20:10 MAKE MY DREAM / ENDLESS SUMMER
Ayr
19:20 SOTO
20:20 GALA SUNDAY / PLAYTHEAUDIENCE
New Idea- Place-laying
Last year I toyed with a place-laying system with mixed results. They were mixed results profit wise, I think, due to the reason I wasn't betting them properly. By this I mean I came up with the stupid idea of martingaling my bets up to the first three races. If race one came in for me, well, hunky dory, that was me for the day. Obviously if I had to go to races two and (especially) three, liabilities started to rise dramatically as I wanted to cover my losses but also make my x amount for the day. I got caught out a couple of times and it hurt!
Now I've come to realise that if I had played level stakes or percentage betting I probably would have been well in. So what I've decided to do is give it another bash but with a twist.
Using the Massey favourite (and NOT the ratings) reports, I'm going to place-lay 3rd favourites that satisfy certain criteria that come out in the reports. Obviously this is just a trial at the moment and as I may not be around all the time to monitor the betfair prices I will use Masseys Odds Analyser to get my odds for the selections. Obviously if I'm around I will use the real price but will stipulate this in the results.
Right, today has thrown up these races, so the CLEAR 3rd favourite will be place-layed. If its not clear 3rd rated then no bet:
Ascot 15:30
Newmarket 17:05
Ayr 18:20
Ayr 20:50
Danny & Tony's Lay System- Saturday 11 August
Today's possible lays (don't forget prices have to be 10.00 or under on the exchanges, approx. 8/1 SP).
Haydock
2.00 TEXAS GOLD
4.50 ALLEVIATE
Ascot
2.20 LIPOCCO
These are the selections so far. If there are any for the evening cards I will update accordingly later.
Today's Selections- Saturday 11 August 2007
Today's Selections
System 1
14:30 Redcar LADY RANGALI (7/2)
17:35 Newmarket SMART ASS (2/1)
System 2
No selection
System 3
No selection
System 4
No selection
System 5
13:45 Ascot DARK MISSILE (7/2)
17:35 Newmarket SMART ASS (2/1)
System 6
14:20 Ascot GENKI (3/1)
17:50 Ayr ARCTIC CAPE (3/1)
20-25 Day System
No selection
4,5,6 System
13:55 Redcar DAWN LIGHT (9/2)
I think after yesterdays whitewash we'd better keep our finger's crossed today!
Friday, August 10, 2007
Danny & Tony's Laying System Results- Friday 10 August 2007
Lingfield
14.15
PAYMASTER GENERAL ---Unp@7/1
16.45
SHUSTRAYA ---Unp@ 13/2
TEEN AGER ---Over 8/1- No Bet
GOLDEN DESERT ---1st@6/1 (8.4 on betfair)
17.15
SCARLET OAK ---Over 8/1- No Bet
Sedgefield
15.30
RED SUN ---Non-runner
GAPPERSONNELDOTCOM ---Over 8/1- No Bet
MISTER FIZZBOMB ---2nd@8/1
16.30
CUMBRIAN KNIGHT ---Over 8/1- No Bet
17.30
IZZYKEEN ---Non-runner
GREENFORT BRAVE ---Over 8/1- No Bet
System Updates- Friday 10 August 2007
System 1
Today: 1 Bet= -1.00pt
Total: 7 Bet= 2 Win/ 2 Placed/ 3 Unp
Total Profit: -0.88pts
SR: +28.57%
ROI: -12.57%
System 2
Today: No selection
Total: 12 Bets= 6 Wins/ 6 Unp
Total Profit: +4.21pts
SR: +50.00%
ROI: +35.08%
System 3
Today: No selection
Total: 20 Bets= 8 Win/ 6 Placed/ 6 Unp
Total Profit: -0.74pts
SR: +40.00%
ROI: -3.70%
System 4
Today: No selection
Total: 3 Bet= 1 Win/ 2 Placed
Total Profit: -1.09pts
SR: +33.33%
ROI: -36.33%
System 5
Today: 3 Bets= -3.00pts
Total: 42 Bets= 8 Win/ 8 Placed/ 26 Unp
Total Profit: -5.75pts
SR: +19.05%
ROI: -13.69%
System 6
Today: 1 Bet= -1.00pt
Total: 35 Bets= 13 Wins/ 6 Placed/ 16 Unp
Total Profit: +34.88pts
SR: +37.14%
ROI: +99.66%
TODAY'S OVERALL POINTS TOTAL (SYS 1-6): -5.00pts
OVERALL TO DATE (Combined Results-sys 1-6)
Total: 119 Bets= 38 Wins/ 62 Placed (incl. winners)/ 57 Unp
Total Profit: +30.63pts
SR: +31.93%
(Place SR: +52.10%)
ROI: +25.74%
20-25 Day System
Today: 1 Bet= -1.00 pts
Total: 3 Bet= 2 Win/ 0 Placed/ 1 Unp
Total Profit: +3.50 pts
SR: +66.67%
ROI: +116.67%
Today: 1 Bet= -1.00pt
Total: 1 Bet= 0 Wins/ 0 Placed/ 1 Unp
Total Profit: -1.00pt
SR: +0.00%
ROI: -100.00%
What an absolutely shocking day! I think the less said about it the better....
System Results- Friday 10 August 2007
System 1
16:15 Lingfield TENJACK QUEEN---Unp @ 2/5
System 2
No selection
System 3
No selection
System 4
No selection
System 5
17:15 Lingfield DASHEENA---Unp @ 6/1
19:15 Newmarket VEILED APPLAUSE---2nd @ 4/1
19:45 Newmarket SNOQUALMIE BOY---2nd @ Evns
System 6
16:15 Lingfield TENJACK QUEEN---Unp @ 2/5
20-25 System
16:45 Lingfield PUSEY STREET LADY---Unp @ 10/1
4,5,6 System
16:15 Lingfield TENJACK QUEEN---Unp @ 2/5
Football Tipping on Punter's Lounge
The PL organise a football tipping competition for members every season and I've been entered for the first time in the Conference A division. I'm going to post up my selections here every week as I've decided that I'm going to have a real flutter on them. Will be interesting to see the results over the course of the season!!
Right, my first selections for tomorrow are:
Aston Villa - Liverpool 2.00
Morecombe - Barnet 2.20
Raith - Berwick 1.53
(my selections in green)
Danny & Tony's Laying System Selections- Friday 10 August 2007
Today's possible lays (don't forget prices have to be 10.00 or under on the exchanges, approx. 8/1 SP).
Lingfield
14.15 PAYMASTER GENERAL
16.45 SHUSTRAYA / TEEN AGER / GOLDEN DESERT
17.15 SCARLET OAK
Sedgefield
15.30 RED SUN / GAPPERSONNELDOTCOM / MISTER FIZZBOMB
16.30 CUMBRIAN KNIGHT
17.30 IZZYKEEN / GREENFORT BRAVE
No selections for Haydock or Newmarket this evening.
New Laying System
Me and my pal over at Punter's Lounge, Danny Cash are trialling a new lay system. Well, it's not new really but one of Danny's old systems that we've kind of tweaked (a lot). What I will do is post up the selections on here as well so we can keep a proper record of the results.
I will post below a copy and paste of the description of the system we posted up on the Punter's Lounge forum:
OK guys. This is kind of an off shoot of Danny's Horses to Lose thread in the Glory Hunter's section. Danny and I have decided to co-operate on this one and together have made a few (crucial) tweaks to his original system in Glory Hunter's.
Obviously it's a laying system and the main emphasis is on races which have 12 or more runners. It encompasses both flat and jumps racing so hopefully will keep us going nicely all year round. The other main criterion for the system is that we only lay horses that are under 10.00 on the exchanges (probably the equivalent of 8/1 SP).
We may post up a good few horses each day but as I said above, it will only be a lay if its under 10.00 on the exchanges.
We will post selections around lunchtime each day when we have a clearer indication as to what prices we're looking at. Hopefully we'll be able to update the results every evening.
Initial indications are that this could be very profitable, with the longest winning run (hence losing run for us) being just 4 in eight years.
I've probably given it the kiss of death now!
Duplicate Selections
For the uninitiated who haven't seen my thread on the Punter's Lounge forum, you may have noticed that some of the systems throw up duplicate selections. Now, each system has different criteria from the next but obviously due to the type of racing taking place at any one time, duplicate selections across different selections have been known to crop up every now and again. Well pretty often, truth be told, but each selection is treated separately in its individual system. So, if we have a selection come up for systems 1,2 and 5 for example and it loses, then it would be classed as a total of three points lost to the final tally. I hope this makes sense?
Today's Selections- Friday 10 Aug 2007
I've decided that from today to make the blog a bit easier to navigate, I'm going to put all the selections from all the systems on one post.
Today's Selections
System 1
16:15 Lingfield TENJACK QUEEN (8/11)
System 2
No selection
System 3
No selection
System 4
No selection
System 5
17:15 Lingfield DASHEENA (11/2)
19:15 Newmarket VEILED APPLAUSE (7/1)
19:45 Newmarket SNOQUALMIE BOY (4/5)
System 6
16:15 Lingfield TENJACK QUEEN (8/11)
20-25 Day System
16:45 Lingfield PUSEY STREET LADY (12/1)
4,5,6 System
16:15 Lingfield TENJACK QUEEN (8/11)
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Systems 1-6 Update- Thur 9 Aug 2007
System 1
Today: No selection
Total: 6 Bet= 2 Win/ 2 Placed/ 2 Unp
Total Profit: +0.12 pts
SR: +33.33%
ROI: +2.00%
System 2
Today: 1 Bet= -1.00pt
Total: 12 Bets= 6 Wins/ 6 Unp
Total Profit: +4.21pts
SR: +50.00%
ROI: +35.08%
System 3
Today: 3 Bets= -0.12pts
Total: 20 Bets= 8 Win/ 6 Placed/ 6 Unp
Total Profit: -0.74pts
SR: +40.00%
ROI: -3.70%
System 4
Today: No selection
Total: 3 Bet= 1 Win/ 2 Placed
Total Profit: -1.09pts
SR: +33.33%
ROI: -36.33%
System 5
Today: No selection
Total: 39 Bets= 8 Win/ 6 Placed/ 25 Unp
Total Profit: -2.75pts
SR: +20.51%
ROI: -7.05%
System 6
Today: 4 Bets= +5.00pts
Total: 34 Bets= 13 Wins/ 6 Placed/ 15 Unp
Total Profit: +35.88pts
SR: +38.24%
ROI: +105.53%
TODAY'S OVERALL POINTS TOTAL: +3.88pts
OVERALL TO DATE (Combined Results)
Total: 114 Bets= 38 Wins/ 60 Placed (incl. winners)/ 54 Unp
Total Profit: +35.63pts
SR: +33.33%
(Place SR: +52.63%)
ROI: +31.25%
Systems 1-6 Results- Thur 9 Aug 2007
System 1
No selection
System 2
19:30 Bath EVER CHEERFUL Unp @ 13/2
System 3
14:10 Haydock MONSIEUR REYNARD Unp @ 3/1
14:20 Yarmouth ERNIE OWL 1st @ 15/8
15:00 Brighton SPIRITOFTHETIGER Unp @ 4/1
System 4
No selection
System 5
No selection
System 6
14:10 Haydock MONSIEUR REYNARD Unp @ 3/1
14:50 Yarmouth GLEAMING SPIRIT 1st @ 3/1
18:30 Bath MERIDIAN LINE 1st @ 4/1
19:30 Bath EVER CHEERFUL Unp @ 13/2
Profit made on the day over all the systems and we needed that after the awful run of the last couple of weeks. System 6 looks as strong as ever with five points made on the day.
20-25 Day System Update- Thur 9 Aug 2007
Today: 1 Bet= +1.75 pts
Total: 2 Bet= 2 Win/ 0 Placed/ 0 Unp
Total Profit: +4.50 pts
SR: +100.00%
ROI: +225.00%
The system seems to be holding up well. Two out of two since the blog started but it was also doing well before that, so fingers crossed it continues.
20-25 Day System Results- Thur 9 Aug 2007
14:30 Brighton ART SALE
1st @ 7/4
Another winner so have to be happy with that.
4,5,6 System Selections- Thur 9 Aug 2007
Another system I have running at the moment that has its first selection for the blog today is the so-called 4,5,6 System. The main criteria for this system is that the race can only be classes 4, 5 or 6 on the flat only. This system produces an excellent 41.5% win strike rate and an impressive 69% place strike rate, so I normally play this win and place on betfair. By this I mean I'll stick an x amount for the win and then an amount to win in the place market to cover my win bet. For example, if I put £10 on the win, then I'll need to make sure my place bet will be enough to cover the £10 should the horse place but not win. Hope this makes sense?
Today's Selection:
18:00 Bath TENSION POINT (6/1)
Don't forget that the price in the brackets is the Racing Post forecast price.
Systems 1-6 Selections- Thur 9 Aug 2007
System 1
No selection
System 2
19:30 Bath EVER CHEERFUL (16/1)
System 3
14:10 Haydock MONSIEUR REYNARD (7/2)
14:20 Yarmouth ERNIE OWL (7/2)
15:00 Brighton SPIRITOFTHETIGER (3/1)
System 4
No selection
System 5
No selection
System 6
14:10 Haydock MONSIEUR REYNARD (7/2)
14:50 Yarmouth GLEAMING SPIRIT (7/2)
18:30 Bath MERIDIAN LINE (6/1)
19:30 Bath EVER CHEERFUL (16/1)
Here's hoping for a better day today.
I was debating whether to separate each system into their own posts for the sake of this blog but decided against it as it's easier at the moment just copying and pasting from my thread in the Punters Lounge. All other systems will, however, be on a separate post.
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
20-25 Day System Update
Today: 1 Bet= +2.75 pts
Total: 1 Bet= 1 Win/ 0 Placed/ 0 Unp
Total Profit: +2.75 pts
SR: +100.00%
ROI: +275.00%
Systems 1-6 Update
System 1
Today: No selection
Total: 6 Bet= 2 Win/ 2 Placed/ 2 Unp
Total Profit: +0.12 pts
SR: +33.33%
ROI: +2.00%
System 2
Today: 1 Bet= -1.00pt
Total: 11 Bets= 6 Wins/ 5 Unp
Total Profit: +5.21pts
SR: +54.55%
ROI: +47.36%
System 3
Today: 2 Bets= -0.64pts
Total: 17 Bets= 7 Win/ 6 Placed/ 4 Unp
Total Profit: -0.62pts
SR: +41.18%
ROI: -3.65%
System 4
Today: No selection
Total: 3 Bet= 1 Win/ 2 Placed
Total Profit: -1.09pts
SR: +33.33%
ROI: -36.33%
System 5
Today: 2 Bets= -2.00pts
Total: 39 Bets= 8 Win/ 6 Placed/ 25 Unp
Total Profit: -2.75pts
SR: +20.51%
ROI: -7.05%
System 6
Today: 2 Bets= -2.00pts
Total: 30 Bets= 11 Wins/ 6 Placed/ 13 Unp
Total Profit: +30.88pts
SR: +36.67%
ROI: +102.93%
TODAY'S OVERALL POINTS TOTAL: -5.64pts
OVERALL TO DATE (Combined Results)
Total: 106 Bets= 35 Wins/ 57 Placed (incl. winners)/ 49 Unp
Total Profit: +31.75pts
SR: +33.02%
(Place SR: +53.77%)
ROI: +29.95%
20-25 Day System Result- Wed 8 Aug 2007
Well on a much brighter note Cape Hawk obliged in the 20:50 at Kempton, coming in at 11/4, so a nice 2.75 point profit on the day. This system is looking good but as I said earlier, for the benefit of this blog the system started from zero at the beginning of the day, so updated stats to follow.
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